Scientists at the University of Victoria and the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen have debunked the myth of rogue waves by using artificial intelligence (AI) to create a predictive model.
The researchers used machine learning to identify the elements that lead to the formation of rogue waves using data from over a billion waves and 700 years of wave height and sea state measurements.
Rogue waves are typically large, erratic waves that pose a severe risk to people and ships in the water. Most of the time, it also happens that there’s no mark of a vessel, and the sailors disappear.
Unlike conventional wisdom, which holds that rogue waves arise from waves merging and stealing each other’s energy, the study identifies “linear superposition” as the main contributing factor.
This happens when two wave systems collide, temporarily strengthening one another and setting the stage for extraordinarily massive waves.
The researchers discovered that anomalous waves, which include extreme rogue waves that are longer than twenty meters, happen frequently.
Their dataset contained about 100,000 occurrences or about a monster wave daily at any ocean location.
The created algorithm gives the shipping sector a real benefit by making it possible to forecast when rogue waves will occur. Shipping Companies can use the algorithm to plan their routes and evaluate risks.
Research lead author Dion Häfner highlights that the algorithm’s transparency distinguishes it from many AI models and helps users understand the estimated risk based on multiple factors, including sea state, water depths, bathymetric data and ocean movements.
As the model is modified, it will be able to offer in-the-moment evaluations of the threat posed by rogue waves, assisting mariners all over the world in making safer and more expert choices.
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